- Smashi Business
- Posts
- Aramco Launches $3B Buyback; Ruwais Refinery Targets Hit; GlobalSWF Forecasts Fund Growth
Aramco Launches $3B Buyback; Ruwais Refinery Targets Hit; GlobalSWF Forecasts Fund Growth
Wednesday, March 11, 2026
Happy and Safe Wednesday everyone!
Energy markets are navigating a volatile intersection of corporate maneuvers and regional security threats. Saudi Aramco has introduced its first-ever $3 billion share buyback program to support valuation after 2025 net income dipped to $93.4 billion on lower crude prices. Simultaneously, a drone strike on Abu Dhabi’s Ruwais Industrial Complex has forced a precautionary shutdown of the Middle East’s largest refinery, threatening its 922,000 bpd capacity. Despite the turmoil, a GlobalSWF analysis suggests the region’s $5 trillion in sovereign assets could emerge with greater influence if high geopolitical risk premiums generate sustained fresh cash flows.
In the wake of developments in the region, we hope everyone stays safe. At this critical moment, it is essential to remain united and follow guidance issued by official authorities from your country.
Markets
EGX30 | 47,772.74 | 2.93% |
DFMGI | 5866.53 | 2.952 |
ADX | 9,997.19 | 1.36% |
Tadawul | 10,930.05 | 0.92% |
Regional Tension Escalates: Drone Strike Ignites Fire at UAE’s Ruwais Complex
What Is It About?
A drone attack targeted the Ruwais Industrial Complex in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, causing a fire at a facility within the massive site. The Abu Dhabi Media Office confirmed that no injuries were reported, though the Ruwais refinery—the largest in the Middle East with a capacity of 922,000 barrels per day—was shut down as a precautionary measure. Located 240km west of Abu Dhabi, Ruwais is a critical hub for the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), housing significant refining, chemical, and fertilizer operations.
Why It Matters?
As the world’s fourth-largest single-site refinery, any prolonged disruption at Ruwais threatens to send immediate shockwaves through global energy supply chains. The strike marks a dangerous expansion of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict into the heart of the UAE’s critical infrastructure. This incident follows a string of recent attacks on Gulf energy assets, including refineries in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain, further destabilizing a region already reeling from the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
What’s Next?
Markets are closely monitoring the duration of the refinery shutdown and any impact on downstream exports like gasoline and jet fuel. Analysts warn that continued targeting of "crown jewel" assets could force a fundamental shift in global energy logistics and push crude prices higher. While the UAE Defense Ministry reports high interception rates for incoming threats, the ability of a drone to strike such a strategic site suggests persistent vulnerabilities that may necessitate even tighter regional security measures.
Aramco Counters Profit Dip with Historic $3 Billion Buyback
What Is It About?
Saudi Aramco has launched its first-ever share buyback program, pledging to repurchase up to $3 billion in shares over the next 18 months. The move comes as the state-owned giant reported an 11.6% drop in full-year 2025 net income to $93.4 billion. This decline was primarily driven by lower crude prices, with average realized prices falling to $69 per barrel in 2025 from $80 the previous year. Despite the earnings dip, Aramco maintained high investor returns, distributing a total of $85.5 billion in dividends for the year.
Why it Matters?
The buyback marks a strategic shift for a company that has historically relied almost exclusively on massive dividends to reward shareholders. By initiating repurchases—primarily to support employee share plans—Aramco is signaling confidence in its long-term valuation despite a volatile market marked by geopolitical tensions and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Robust operating cash flow of $136.2 billion and free cash flow of $85.4 billion continue to underpin the Kingdom's ambitious Vision 2030 economic diversification projects.
What’s Next?
Investors are focused on Aramco's massive capital expenditure, guided at $50–$55 billion for 2026. A key priority is the Jafurah gas expansion, which recently achieved first production and aims to boost sales gas capacity by 80% by 2030. While current war-driven oil price spikes to $114 per barrel may provide a temporary revenue cushion, analysts will be watching if prolonged regional conflict forces further output curbs or if the company's AI-driven efficiency gains can continue to offset rising operational costs.
Gulf Sovereign Funds Could Exit Turmoil with Greater Global Clout
What Is It About?
A new scenario analysis by GlobalSWF suggests that Gulf sovereign wealth funds could emerge from the current regional crisis with an expanded footprint in global finance. Currently, these state investors—including the Public Investment Fund, Mubadala Investment Company, and Qatar Investment Authority—manage roughly $5 trillion in accumulated surplus revenues. While the analysis warns that a prolonged Strait of Hormuz disruption could force states to tap these funds to cover fiscal deficits, a baseline recovery could see elevated oil prices generate fresh cash flows to replenish defense spending and global capital reserves.
Why It Matters?
These funds are no longer just "rainy day" accounts; they are the world’s most powerful institutional investors. A surge in geopolitical risk premiums on oil could perversely strengthen their ability to acquire depressed global assets while domestic infrastructure is rebuilt. However, the stakes are high: a worst-case escalation involving damage to production facilities would limit the ability of Gulf states to capitalize on high prices, potentially draining funds to offset losses in tourism and the non-oil economy.
What’s Next?
Markets are watching for a potential "rebalancing" of portfolios. If oil prices remain structurally higher post-crisis, expect these funds to accelerate investments in technology and renewable energy to future-proof their economies. Conversely, watch for any significant divestments from liquid global markets, which would signal that governments are prioritizing domestic deficit coverage over international expansion.
👨💻From Smashi Business’ Desk
UAE is spending nearly $1 million to intercept one Iranian missile or drone
Abu dhabi’s MGX-backed OpenAI sees ChatGPT app uninstalls jump 295% in the US
UAE Successfully Intercepts Iranian Missiles, Naguib Sawiris Voices Support
CEO Mudassir Sheikha says the company’s top priority is the “safety of our captains”
Khalaf Al Habtoor: “Dubai Remains One of the Safest Destinations on Earth”
'Cancel ChatGPT': Sam Altman Under Fire for Pentagon Deal as US Attacks Iran
🦄 World of Startups
Stake Raises $31M Series B Led by Emirates NBD, Total Funding Hits $58M
US-based Luma AI is planting its flag in Riyadh — opening a regional headquater
Singapore's Ascentium continues its aggressive expansion, acquiring UAE legaltech pioneer Clara in a strategic Middle East play
Abu Dhabi is quietly becoming one of the most influential financiers of the global AI race, with its latest participation in Anthropic’s massive $30B funding round
Safqah Capital has just closed one of Saudi Arabia’s largest-ever seed rounds, raising $15.2 million in a deal that was four times oversubscribed
🔍In other news…
Iranian wallets move millions in crypto despite internet blackout
EA Buyout Banks Eye €4 Billion, $10.5 Billion Split in Debt Sale
Millions of Middle East airline seats cancelled since start of war
Cantor sees $11bn cash flow for UAE energy sector as it assigns overweight rating to Adnoc Group shares
TruDoc raises $15M in Pre-Series B to accelerate virtual-first healthcare across GCC
Maersk latest shipping firm to halt Gulf cargo bookings as Iran conflict pushes up insurance costs
QatarEnergy declares force majeure after Iran attacks halt supply
🗓️ Plan Your Events (March-April 2026)
UAE
31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.
26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.
7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.
13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.
14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center.
Saudi Arabia
13-16 April (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.
20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Sports Investment Forum (SIF), Riyadh
Egypt
30 March – 1 April (Monday-Wednesday): Egypt International Energy Conference and Exhibition (EGYPES).
