Happy Thursday everyone!

Markets rallied globally today following a two-week ceasefire announcement, with Middle Eastern bourses leading the charge, while Asian, European and American indices followed suit. Crude oil dipped nearly 10% amid reduced geopolitical premiums.

Separately, asset managers controlling $20 trillion—including BlackRock and State Street—are pressing ahead with Middle East expansion despite regional tensions, signaling confidence in long-term fundamentals. Deal momentum remains uninterrupted.

Meanwhile, Fox Corporation is integrating Kalshi's prediction market data across its news platforms, reflecting growing mainstream acceptance of crowd-sourced probability forecasts as legitimate news tools.

In the wake of developments in the region, we hope everyone stays safe. At this critical moment, it is essential to remain united and follow guidance issued by official authorities from your country.

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Markets

Middle Eastern Markets Surge on Ceasefire Optimism; Global Equities Follow

What Is It About?

Regional stock markets rallied strongly today following a two-week ceasefire announcement, lifting sentiment across the Middle East and triggering a broader global rally.

Dubai's DFM index surged more than 8% at some point, while Abu Dhabi's ADX climbed more than 3% as investors celebrated the de-escalation prospects. Saudi Arabia's Tadawul Index gained nearly 2%, and Qatar's exchange rose more than 3.5%. Egypt's EGX30 extended gains with a +2.7% jump, reflecting renewed confidence across the Arab world.

Why It Matters?

The positive momentum rippled globally. Asian markets led the way, with Japan's Nikkei and Shanghai's composite both posting gains exceeding 2%. European indices followed suit—London's FTSE, Frankfurt's DAX, and Paris's CAC 40 all finished firmly in green territory, each climbing between 1.5% and 2%. Wall Street mirrored the optimism, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq all registering significant gains by market close.

What’s Next?

However, crude oil prices dipped nearly 10% to ~$94 per barrel, as traders shifted focus from geopolitical risk premiums to supply fundamentals. Brent crude fell similarly, reflecting reduced concerns about regional supply disruptions.

Analysts attributed the rally primarily to ceasefire relief rather than economic data, with investors betting on stabilized energy markets and renewed business confidence across multiple sectors.

Global Asset Managers With Twenty Trillion Dollars In Assets Commit To Middle East Expansion Despite Iran War

What Is It About?

Global investment giants managing over $20 trillion in assets, including BlackRock and State Street, are accelerating their Middle East operations despite the ongoing Iran war now in its fifth week, they told The National. BlackRock, which manages $14 trillion globally, states its commitment to the region remains unchanged, while State Street similarly pledges continued expansion. Both firms view the UAE as strategically crucial, leveraging financial hubs like Dubai's DIFC and Abu Dhabi's ADGM to access sovereign wealth funds and institutional investors.

Why It Matters?

Despite geopolitical turmoil disrupting tourism and energy markets, long-term regional fundamentals remain robust. Deal momentum persists—Abu Dhabi's 2PointZero acquired US gas infrastructure for $2.25 billion in March, while Saudi and Qatari funds announced major investments. The IMF projects temporary economic headwinds, but UAE leadership emphasizes resilience and swift recovery. Private Swiss wealth managers like Lombard Odier confirm the region maintains strategic priority, with successful navigation through multiple past crises strengthening confidence.

What’s Next?

Alternative asset manager Hillhouse Investment Management recently opened an ADGM office, joining accelerating company registrations. ADGM recorded 36% asset growth annually, while DIFC saw 28% registration jumps. As uncertainty creates opportunities, asset managers expect sustained capital deployment and institutional client growth throughout 2026.

Fox Corporation Integrates Kalshi Prediction Market Data Across News Platforms In Groundbreaking Deal

What Is It About?

Fox Corp announced a partnership to integrate Kalshi's prediction market data across its news platforms, including Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, Fox Weather, and streaming service FOX One. The data will provide crowd-sourced forecasts on political, economic, weather, and cultural events. Kalshi will work directly with Fox production teams to create real-time data visualizations, making prediction probabilities accessible to mainstream audiences alongside traditional reporting.

Why It Matters?

Prediction markets have surged in popularity following the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with media outlets increasingly using market-based probabilities to complement reporting. Notably, 70% of Kalshi's platform visitors use it to view forecasts rather than trade, indicating strong demand for crowd-sourced probability data as an information tool. This partnership signals a broader industry trend toward integrating alternative data sources into mainstream journalism.

What’s Next?

The integration will roll out across Fox's platforms, bringing real-time prediction data to millions of viewers. This move could influence how media organizations incorporate market intelligence into coverage, potentially prompting competitors to adopt similar strategies. The partnership underscores growing acceptance of prediction markets as legitimate news tools.

👨‍💻From Smashi Business’ Desk

• Dubai-based Independent Food Company is hiring across roles including marketing, content and hospitality.

• In a striking move that defies industry trends, Alsayegh Worldwide has made a bold commitment to its workforce. Leadership vows there will be no salary reductions and no job losses through 2026.⁠

• Saudi Research & Media Group (SRMG) is rewriting the rules of media in MENA.

• Semafor is doubling down on the Gulf. The Semafor is expanding to a five-day publishing schedule, scaling hiring, and growing its events business as global attention on the region surges.

• Telegram founder and UAE citizen Pavel Durov said Iran’s ban on the platform has led to widespread VPN usage rather than adoption of state-backed messaging apps.

🔍In other news…

• Saudi’s BinDawood to acquire 51% stake in Vaza for $58M

• Eni discovers two trillion cubic feet of gas off Egypt's coast

• UAE Central Bank issues new 9-to-6 rule to stop unwanted telemarketing calls

• Tapper report flags $966m mobile ad waste risk in the GCC region

• Saudi cultural fund deploys $205m in Q1 to boost creative sector

• Ship owners await clarity on Hormuz deal to free 800 stranded vessels 

• Saudi Arabia ups stake in Capcom, now owns $670 million worth of stock or 6% of shares

🦄 World of Startups

• Egypt’s Lucky Raises USD 23M Series B. Its Consumer Credit Model is Expanding Into North Africa

• “We Got Funded!” Maison Safqa Raises US$620,000 in Pre-Seed Funding to Expand Luxury Flash-Sale Platform Across GCC

• Via Separations, US-based deeptech startup, raised $36M in funding from Aramco Ventures (Saudi), and other global investors.

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