Happy Friday and Labour Day everyone!

Russia has moved to reassure energy markets after the UAE’s exit from OPEC, signaling that OPEC+ remains intact despite fresh questions over the alliance’s future. Meanwhile, Washington is facing mounting scrutiny over the true cost of its war with Iran, as analysts challenge the Pentagon’s $25 billion estimate and warn the final bill could climb sharply higher. Closer to home, UAE success story CarniStore has revealed how a chance meeting at a swimming pool sparked a premium food empire now backed by a AED45 million Emirates Growth Fund investment: a powerful signal of the Gulf’s growing startup ecosystem.

In the wake of developments in the region, we hope everyone stays safe. At this critical moment, it is essential to remain united and follow guidance issued by official authorities from your country.

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Markets

Russia Says It Will Stay In OPEC+ After UAE Exit

What Is It About?

Russia has moved to calm market concerns after the UAE’s surprise decision to leave OPEC, with Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak saying Moscow has no intention of exiting OPEC+ and sees no immediate risk of a price war. Speaking Thursday, Novak said supply disruptions linked to the Iran conflict and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have created a tight market where demand continues to outpace available crude supplies.

Why It Matters?

The UAE’s departure has raised fresh questions over the long-term cohesion of OPEC+ and whether other producers could follow. Markets had feared Abu Dhabi’s planned production increase might trigger a battle for market share similar to past oil price wars. Russia’s reassurance is significant because it signals continued backing for coordinated output management, helping stabilize expectations at a time when geopolitical tensions are already constraining global energy flows.

What’s Next?

Attention now shifts to how aggressively the UAE ramps up production outside the cartel and whether OPEC+ can maintain discipline without one of its key Gulf members. Analysts will also watch for any policy response from Saudi Arabia and upcoming alliance meetings for signs of strategic recalibration. For now, Russia’s stance suggests OPEC+ remains intact, but the UAE’s exit could mark the start of a broader reshaping of global oil market alliances.

Pentagon says Iran War Bill is $25 Billion; Analysts Say It’s Far Higher

What Is It About?

Top Pentagon officials told Congress the US has spent $25 billion so far on the war in Iran, but independent analysts say the real figure is likely much higher. Bloomberg calculations estimate at least $14 billion has already been spent on munitions, destroyed aircraft replacement and operating costs alone, while the Pentagon has declined to provide a detailed breakdown of its accounting.

Why It Matters?

The dispute highlights growing pressure on the Pentagon to justify wartime spending as costs rapidly escalate. Analysts argue the official figure excludes major expenses including regional base repairs, replacement of damaged defense systems and broader deployment costs. With dozens of US aircraft lost and missile defense systems heavily used, the financial burden could reshape defense budgeting and intensify congressional scrutiny over military strategy.

What’s Next?

Lawmakers are expected to push for greater transparency as hearings continue, particularly over replacement costs for lost aircraft and infrastructure repairs across the Gulf. The final price tag will also depend on how long operations continue and whether regional escalation persists. If combat drags on, analysts warn the total cost could climb well beyond current estimates, adding pressure on Washington to reassess both military objectives and long-term commitments.

CarniStore’s AED45M Growth Story: How a Swimming Pool Meeting Became a Regional Food Empire

On the Smashi Business Show, CarniStore founders Fikry "Fix" Boutros and Daniel "Dan" Wanies revealed the unconventional origin story behind one of UAE's most successful premium food brands, and how serendipity led to a game-changing partnership with Emirates Growth Fund.

The meeting that changed everything didn't happen in a boardroom. It happened at a swimming pool. After years of working separately on identical business concepts, the two entrepreneurs discovered each other at a mutual friend's son's birthday party. "It was like, no, someone else has my idea, I need to move fast," Dan recalled. Within months, they realized the best move wasn't competition, it was collaboration.

The founders bootstrapped their vision from Al-Quoz, starting with distressed properties they could afford. They identified a critical gap in UAE's market: premium specialty meat cuts for grilling and smoking, backed by exceptional customer service. While competitors offered the same two or three cuts, Carnistore went deeper, literally and figuratively.

What truly sets them apart is their uncompromising philosophy. A no-questions-asked refund policy. Hiring based on 80% attitude and 20% skill. Delivering every day of the week, including holidays and Eids when others won't. From a B2C powerhouse of 70,000+ customer database, they scaled strategically into B2B, now serving 200+ restaurants including some of World's 50 Best establishments.

Karolos Travassaros, the Chief Portfolio Officer at the Emirates Growth Fund (EGF), explained why the AED 45 million investment made sense: "This is a success story of the local ecosystem and local capital ecosystem." The founders' vision, rooted in UAE, expanding through GCC and the Arab world, aligned perfectly with EGF's mission to back homegrown excellence.

With a foundation built on passion, community trust, and relentless execution, Carnistore isn't just feeding UAE. They're showing entrepreneurs everywhere that premium quality and genuine customer obsession remain the ultimate competitive advantages.

👨‍💻From Smashi Business’ Desk

• Exclusive: Bezos’ $38 Billion “Project Prometheus” AI Play, Which Has a Quiet Gulf Angle

• Despite a market cap of just $15.7 million — well below Nasdaq’s $35 million threshold — Swvl Holdings Corp is not on the brink of delisting.

• UK universities under fire after reports of £440k spent spying on pro-Palestine student activity⁠

🔍In other news…

• Trump says UAE’s OPEC exit may ease oil price pressure

• Unilever Expects to Raise Detergent Prices on Iran War Costs

• Inflation hits 50% in Iran as war rattles economy

• US-Gulf trade rose pre-war despite Trump tariffs - AGBI analysis

• Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) reported a surge in new company registrations in March despite the Iran war’s impact on the city.

🦄 World of Startups

• Dubai gifting marketplace Udora secures $10M

• Saudi fashion platform Aya secures $7m to scale real time production

• Jordan-based Tamatem has acquired Istanbul-founded Playable Factory, strengthening its push into performance marketing and user acquisition.

• Egypt’s Lucky Raises USD 23M Series B. Its Consumer Credit Model is Expanding Into North Africa

• “We Got Funded!” Maison Safqa Raises US$620,000 in Pre-Seed Funding to Expand Luxury Flash-Sale Platform Across GCC

• Via Separations, US-based deeptech startup, raised $36M in funding from Aramco Ventures (Saudi), and other global investors.

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